Tuesday, June 17, 2008

From Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Omen

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis signal that attempts to predict a forthcoming stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster, the crash of the German zeppelin of the same name in May 1937. The Hindenburg Omen is the alignment of several technical factors that measure the underlying condition of the stock market - specifically the NYSE - such that the probability that a stock market crash occurs is higher than normal, and the probability of a severe decline is quite high.

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Monday, June 16, 2008

Well, well, a week ago everything was running amok at Lehman. Now everything is OK. For some unexplained reason this guy has the Pinocchio look. It seems like LEH is rebounding now on an admission of a loss.
Great! Now this guy thinks he can save Lehman by taking the blame.
Lets hope we are not on a BCS replay here, trying to get by to get a rescue or hiding stuff till the very end.
Anyway, after the market tanked on 6/10 pundits are flashing the oversold card and the talking heads are babbling the "buying opportunity", meanwhile a few of the mainstream publications are publishing the CYA (cover your a##) articles like this one
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121298437487356659.html?mod=ba_art_Up_and+Down+Wall+Street+Daily just in case the powers that could, fail to manipulate the market

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Friday, June 06, 2008

After weeks of losing money because I was puting my money where my mouth is, I finally made it... I finally made money on a trade going short QLD, but my timing was not quite right.

At least I made a winning trade. I am being honest about this. I have lost money, but I saw this one coming, the only problem (as every traders problem) was my timing.

Hopefully we get another down day on Monday before the classic PPT bounce or maybe I will have the guts to ride the short position to the March lows.

You never know, I was strarting to think that I did not know anything about the market (Which I dont), but for once in my trading, I was right and made a little money.

I know this sound horrible for the people who were long the "worst is behind us" trade, but think about it: Oil at 138 and going up, inexistent energy saving policies, rising unemployment rate, rising foreclosures, and the financials in the doldrums....
But perhaps, once again I am wrong and we see a super bounce next week. However, based on the little confidence that the 3% drop gave me, I would say we will slowly trade to the March lows.

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